Thursday, 18 April 2019

No Brexit more likely than a disorderly one, say economists

Political reporter(wp/reuters):::
The chances that Brexit will be cancelled are now greater than the chances Britain will leave the European Union without a deal, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who again pushed back their expectations for when the Bank of England will raise interest rates.
Last week, the EU delayed Brexit until the end of October, averting for now the risk of an abrupt British departure, which investors and policymakers fear would hurt both economies.
In the latest monthly Reuters survey, taken April 12-17, the median probability Britain and the EU will part ways in a disorderly fashion - where no deal is agreed - held steady at the 15 percent given in March, the lowest since Reuters began asking in July 2017.
Only one of 51 respondents gave a value over 50 percent.
“Apart from the fact that no-deal Brexit is now less likely, the path ahead is as unclear as ever. A deal (and likely a softer Brexit) still seems more likely than not,” BNP Paribas economists said. “But we are sceptical that this will happen any time soon.”
That chimed with the views of most economists polled, who said the two sides would settle eventually on a free-trade deal - as they have in all Reuters polls since late 2016.
Britain being a member of the European Economic Area, paying into the EU budget to maintain access to the EU’s single market, was again in second place.
But the third and fourth spots flipped from last month, so leaving without an agreement and trading under World Trade Organization rules fell to least likely. Brexit’s being cancelled reclaimed third place, a ranking it has only held once before.
Looking at a like-for-like comparison of contributors to this and March’s poll showed the same change in views.

HOLD IT

None of the 75 economists polled expect Bank Rate to be moved from 0.75 percent when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision next month. The MPC will publish its quarterly update of economic forecasts the same day.
“Without Brexit uncertainty, the Bank of England might have considered raising interest rates at the May 2 inflation report meeting. With the country still in limbo politically, this is highly unlikely,” said Elizabeth Martins at HSBC.
Medians suggest the first rate increase of 25 basis points will come early next year, one calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. Bank Rate will then stay at 1.00 percent throughout 2020, the poll predicted.
Britain’s economy dodged the expected post-Brexit referendum recession, but growth has slowed as uncertainty holds back investment.
UK wage growth hit a decade high in the three months to the end of February, but that was mainly driven by companies taking on workers - who can be fired relatively easily if the economy slows - rather than committing to longer-term investments.
The economy is predicted to grow a modest 0.2 to 0.4 percent per quarter through to the end of next year, similar to forecasts for the euro zone. 
Those median forecasts for Britain were weaker than last month’s. But the chance of a recession in the coming year held steady at the 25 percent given in March. They fell to 25 percent within the next two years from 30 percent.
Inflation held just below the BoE’s 2 percent target at 1.9 percent last month, official figures showed on Wednesday. Thursday’s poll said it would be at or around the Bank’s target through to the end of next year.
“While a few one-off factors might see headline UK inflation rebound a touch in the short-term, the overall outlook is benign and we do not expect a rate hike from the Bank of England this year,” said James Smith at ING.

Healthcare for the homeless: 'I probably wouldn't be alive without them'

Special correspondent(wp/bbc):::
Homeless people face various challenges: where to find the next meal; where to seek shelter on a cold night; how to protect themselves from the threat of violence. A specialist service in Birmingham is trying to make life easier for them in one specific area - where to turn when they need medical help.
Kaece McGowan was living in a hostel when she first visited the Homeless Health Exchange - an NHS practice exclusively for people who are homeless.
The then 20-year-old, who had been living abroad, returned home because of visa issues and found living in Birmingham "a bit of a struggle". Without the surgery, she said, she might have died.
"I had no support network, no friends, no family around - I felt a bit trapped and overwhelmed," she said.
"I got into quite a bit of trouble when I first came here."
She found herself mixing with "bad people who knew how to have a good time", was taking drugs, drinking, got fired from jobs "a lot", was the victim of a sexual assault and was herself arrested for assault.
She was struggling with her mental health, which she says has been a "difficult" thing for her in the past.
Eventually, she was taken to the surgery by one of the hostel's support workers.
"I can be very difficult, I can lose my temper, I can get very emotional and have weird outbursts - and here they are, really calm, really understanding; they understand that when I am 'on one' I am not like a normal patient," she said.
"I go a bit over the top and become a bit outlandish, so their patience is really good."
Kaece began working with psychotherapist Karen Loly.
"We see some very complicated people with very troubled histories," she said.
"We give them more time than they might get elsewhere."
The Homeless Health Exchange, located just outside the city centre, has just over 1,000 patients on its register, more than double the number it had when it opened 16 years ago.
Typically, patients are aged in their 30s or 40s, although they present themselves with symptoms comparable to people in their 70s - something surgery GP Sarah Marwick describes as "shocking".
The average age of death for a homeless man is 47. For women, it is 43.
It is estimated 18 of Birmingham's then population of 12,000 homeless people died in 2017 - the number of deaths totalled about 600 across England and Wales.
The health exchange, which gets £628,000 funding from the Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Trust, sees a wide range of people. Many have issues caused by drug-taking and rough living, but patients also have issues similar to people seen in mainstream GP practices.
The difference tends to be that they only turn up at the surgery when a danger point has been reached.
Over the years, Dr Marwick has seen young people with acute liver disease, sepsis caused by drug use, patients with infections so bad they have needed double amputations, and those who are psychotic.
She remembers one 28-year-old man whose spine became so infected it essentially crumbled, leaving him paraplegic. He died shortly afterwards.
She can cite the cases of three people who have had amputations and still live on the streets.
"I have had occasions where I say to someone you need to go to hospital or you will not be alive tomorrow," she said.
"But other priorities such as getting their heroin or looking after their dog will take precedence."
One patient, a 27-year-old man who did not want to be indentified, has arrived at the surgery for a prescription to help his depression. He has been seeing the GP, he says, since his relationship broke up.
"I don't know what I would do [without the surgery]," he said.
"Without it some people would die out there. There's nothing else for people. I've lived elsewhere and there was nothing like that there.
"People have no-one to talk to. They would go mad or kill themselves. Or end up dead because of the cold."
It used to be the case the vast majority of people Dr Marwick saw would be older men with alcohol problems. Then it became men in their 30s or 40s addicted to heroin or diazepam.
Now, overwhelmingly she says, it is even younger people addicted to spice or mamba - a synthetic drug that can leave users in a zombie-like state.
Resuscitations at the surgery are common.
"I have never known anything like it," she said recalling a recent incident with a patient who ran naked through a corridor, somehow convinced he was dead.
"It is getting worse. It's all about that now - not heroin so much. It's had a massive impact on health."
Recent law changes, which saw a blanket ban on so-called legal highs brought into force across the UK, haven't prevented drugs like spice being sold, but the substances are now even more unregulated and stronger, and easier to get hold of, Dr Marwick said. And, there is no reversal agent, so doctors find it difficult to treat those who have taken these drugs.
Despite its best efforts, many homeless people do not want to engage with the health exchange and its staff.
A mistrust of the system from people who find it hard to trust the authorities is one reason given, another is that their own health is not a priority.
It is an issue exchange staff are all too keenly aware of. To try to combat this, nurses do outreach work, walking through the city centre to visit the places where rough sleepers are known to congregate.
Substance misuse nurse April Stoneman and community psychiatric nurse Joanne Westwood spend about 90 minutes walking through the city on a typical session.
They approach people they see sitting in the streets and ask if there is any help they need.
Some people chat to them like old friends, some wave them away. Some agree to meet later at the clinic but often do not turn up.
The rejections do not matter, the nurses say. The only way to get homeless people proper treatment is to keep approaching them to remind them the service is there.
"There would be a lot more people dying if we weren't here," Ms Stoneman said.
Community nurse Clare Cassidy also runs outreach sessions.
She has been with the service for 15 years and in that time has treated people who have been set on fire, and known patients who have later been murdered and then been called upon to identify their bodies.
"I thought I knew Birmingham when I started this job but there has been a whole layer of humanity I knew nothing about," she said.
"I think it is getting a lot more violent for [the patients] - there is a lot of aggression on the streets both between themselves and from the general public. It's hard to believe sometimes," she said.
Part of her job is to run the drop-in clinics, which are held daily at the health exchange and weekly at Sifa Fireside, a charity-run drop-in centre.
Her patients have varying needs. A typical clinic can include dressing wounds, assessing and treating leg ulcers - common among drug users - treating eye problems and looking out for people with diabetes, asthma or blood-borne viruses such as HIV, which staff say they are now seeing more of.
Ms Cassidy can see someone who has been beaten up and threatened or someone who just wants to chat. She also helps patients access a free prescription service, which some can find a rather complicated process to navigate.
"You are never sure which hat you are wearing in this job," she said.
"These people don't fit into a normal GP setting - they would not manage to get an appointment," Dr Marwick said.
"You have to understand the group. I really like the job - it is incredibly challenging and it is difficult and I have seen some of the sickest people, but if you take the time to talk to them and show interest in them, then it is beneficial and rewarding.
"You might be the first person to have shown an interest in them."
Most GP surgeries have a zero-tolerance attitude to patients who behave badly.
The Health Exchange is more tolerant. Staff are sworn at and shouted at on a regular basis. Violence, however, is rare.
Ninety per cent of patients are men, most of whom have become homeless after losing a job or a relationship breaking down.
"Women tend to be better at looking after themselves; they generally have better social support and, if they have children, they don't tend to stay homeless too long," Dr Marwick said.
Going forward, she would like to see a shift in how healthcare for the homeless is provided.
Nationally, she said, the country works on a recovery approach rather than a harm reduction one - for example, someone might be put on methadone to treat an addiction rather than have the addiction spotted before it got out of control.
The recovery approach to medicine suits some people, she said, but not those whose lives are so chaotic they cannot manage to look after themselves. They end up not getting a service at all.
"My mission in life is to get equality of access for the homeless for health services and everything else. As a city, we should be embarrassed if we can't do it."
As for Kaece, she credits the practice with helping her getting her life back on track to the point that now, several years later, she is in her first year of university studying psychotherapy and counselling.
"If I hadn't had the guidance and support from the staff here, I would have made some very bad life choices and I probably still wouldn't be around today."

Crossrail 'could be delayed until 2021'

Staff reporter(wp/bbc):::
Crossrail could be delayed until 2021, according to a senior source associated with the project to build a new railway underneath central London.
The east-west route, officially called the Elizabeth Line, will run between Reading and Shenfield in Essex and had been due to open in December 2018.
Crossrail said testing of the trains and signalling was "progressing well".
But sources told the BBC this phase - known as dynamic testing - was "proving more difficult than was first thought."
The source said: "It all depends on how dynamic testing goes between now and the end of this year."
"The last quarter of this year will be a critical period for the testing."

Signalling software

Once dynamic testing is complete then trial runs will commence. This will effectively be a simulation of the timetable in real time.
The source said, with the current state of the project in mind, a "best case scenario" would be the new Elizabeth Line opening in spring 2020.
A "middle probability case" would be the summer of next year.


"A worst case is the spring of 2021."
Two other senior rail sources say this assessment is credible. It also tallies with one of the conclusions in a report written by MPs on the Public Accounts Committee which was published earlier this month.
However, there is still uncertainty over when the scheme can be delivered because work to match a new signalling system in the 13-mile stretch of tunnel with software on the new trains is still ongoing.
On top of the trains and signalling, all of the stations along the route are incomplete.
Paddington and Bond Street are the furthest behind.
A delay to the project only first became public in the summer of last year, just weeks before the railway was supposed to open in December 2018.

What is Crossrail?

Crossrail is a new railway that will run beneath London from Reading and Heathrow in the west through central tunnels across to Shenfield and Abbey Wood in the east.
Construction began in 2009 and it is Europe's biggest infrastructure project - it had been due to open in December 2018 although last summer that was pushed back to autumn 2019.
It has been officially named the Elizabeth Line in honour of the Queen and will serve 41 stations.
An estimated 200m passengers will use the new undergound line annually, increasing central London rail capacity by 10% - the largest increase since World War Two.
Crossrail says the new line will connect Paddington to Canary Wharf in 17 minutes.
Presentational grey line
Roger Ford at Modern Railways Magazine said he believed the failure to come clean about the delay was symptomatic of how politically sensitive the project was.
Both Transport for London and the Department for Transport are joint sponsors.
"It was probably a situation where people don't report upwards for fear of getting shot."
He said he believed "everyone is to blame" and the fact that the new management had taken several months to assess the scale of the delay "shows how bad it was".
If there is a further significant delay it will almost inevitably cost more money.
In 2010 the budget for Crossrail was scaled back slightly to £14.8bn.
But when the initial delay became public last year that figure rose to £17.6bn.
Much of that additional money has been lent to Transport for London by the government. Whitehall officials insist London will ultimately have to cover the extra cost, not UK taxpayers elsewhere.
In a statement, Crossrail said London needed the Elizabeth Line to be "completed as quickly as possible and brought into service for passengers".
"We are working very hard to finalise our new plan to deliver the opening at the earliest opportunity and we will be providing more details later this month."
Bombardier which manufactured the trains for Crossrail did not wish to comment on reports that the testing of the trains and signalling was not going to plan.
Siemens Mobility is responsible for the signalling. When contacted by the BBC, it referred inquiries to Crossrail.

My-Lecia Naylor: CBBC star dies suddenly aged 16

Mya-Lecia Naylor
Pushpita,Kidz reporter,(wp/bbc):::
BBC children's TV star Mya-Lecia Naylor has died suddenly at the age of 16.
Mya-Lecia, who appeared in CBBC shows Millie Inbetween and Almost Never, died on 7 April after she collapsed, her agents A&J Management said.
CBBC said she was a "much-loved part of the BBC Children's family and a hugely talented actress, singer and dancer".
A&J Management said she was "hugely talented and a big part of A&J" and that they would "miss her greatly". It is not yet known how she died.

'She shone so brightly'

CBBC announced the news on its website, where young fans shared their memories of the actress.
Tributes have been paid to the teenager, who starred as Fran in two series of Millie Inbetween, about two sisters whose parents have split up, and Mya in Almost Never, about a fictional boyband and rival girl group Girls Here First.
She played the lead singer of the girl band, and said in a recent interview that she'd always wanted to sing as well as act. She also said she had some "amazing projects" coming up soon.
Alice Webb, director of BBC Children's, which includes CBBC, said news of Mya-Lecia's death had left her team "distraught and so terribly sad".
"She has shone so brightly on our screens, both in Millie Inbetween and Almost Never, and it's unthinkable that she won't be part of our journey going forward," she said, describing the hugely popular actress as "a real role model for her young fans".
Almost Never posted a tribute on its Instagram, saying their thoughts were with her family and friends.
Emily Atack, who starred with Mya-Lecia in Almost Never, said her co-star was a "beautiful and talented girl" who was "a complete joy to be around".
She said she was "so shocked and sad" to hear of her death.
And child actor Oakley Orchard, one member of The Wonderland in Almost Never, wrote in an Instagram story: "Rest in peace to my little pink wafer. Absolutely devastated, will miss all the fun times we had together.

'You were a miracle'

Matt Leys, writer for Millie Inbetween, said: "Goodbye our brilliant, funny, lovely Fran.
"You were a miracle. Watching the cast of Millie Inbetween grow with their characters, inform them, let us write it around them, has been an absolute joy. This is such awful, devastating news."
He added that the team was hurting, but "remembering all the brilliant things Mya-Lecia did".
Screenwriter Simon Underwood said she was "one of the best actors in recent CBBC shows", adding: "She was so good. I've got a notion of a new children's drama developing and one of three leads I'd keyed to her."
Another screenwriter Paul Rose, who had worked on the second series of Almost Never, described her death as "heartbreaking".
"Far too young, and a huge loss for all on the show. My heart goes out to her family," he said in a Twitter post.
Mya-Lecia's screen debut came as a toddler when she appeared in Absolutely Fabulous as Saffy's daughter Jane. She also had the title role in ITV series Tati's Hotel.
Her film roles included Miro in Cloud Atlas, alongside Halle Berry and Tom Hanks.